Insight Into Trading - What Percentage Of Your Trades Are Winners?

An Inquiry into Trading Systems, Money Management and the Human Psyche
At a recent seminar, I got involved in an interesting discussion with other attendees centered on trading success. More specifically, the percentage of successful trades and the percent of accuracy you should realistically expect from trading.

For whatever reason, our minds tend to focus on accuracy as the primary way of evaluating a speculative endeavor. True to form, accuracy - our mental magnet of making money - has very little to do with finding success.

Reality - No Great Expectations
By and large, the record of the past teaches us that on balance, the investment newsletter writers (commodity, stock or mutual funds) don't do such a hot job. As a result, taking a quick peak at the advisors' percentage of accuracy in picking winning trades should prove to be at the very least - interesting.

In looking into this I primarily focused on: Of the small percentage of winning services, what was the accuracy percentage of these most profitable advisory services?

I arbitrarily selected the March 1993, January 1996, March 1997, May 1998 and June 1999. What follows are the figures for the most profitable advisors / service for that month and their percent of accuracy of all trades for the prior 12 months.

Mar 1993 Commodity Timing . . . $60,939 . . . 51%
Jan 1996 Moore Research . . . . $84,643 . . . 52%
Mar 1997 Turtle Talk. . . . . . $79,244 . . . 42%
May 1998 Commodity Timing . . . $90,430 . . . 47%
Jun 1999 Moore Research . . . . $102,605. . . 54%

A key point to remember is that these results are the "best of the best" for the above time periods. On average these services were right 49.2% of the time - our first indication that accuracy percentage doesn't necessarily have much to do with making money.

Consistent Winners
During the selected timeframe there were four advisors / services that substantially outperformed the others. In other words - they made money. Before we look at their figures, let me point out that none of the top four performers base their approach on the "magical and mystical" stuff like Gann, Elliot, Astrology and the like. In fact, advisor letters touting those methods have the worst performance. The winning letters are, by and large, trend followers to one degree or another.

With that in mind, here are the ones that I feel had the best performance. The market letters that had the most consistent and profitable performance and their percentage of winning trades. The dollar figures represent the money they made from their recommendations for the prior 12 months from each of the reporting dates listed above.

Top 4 Newsletters . . . . . . . . 5 Year Total Profits . . . % of Winners
Commodity Research Bureau . . . . . $158,840 . . . . . . . . 48%
Commodity Timing. . . . . . . . . . $224,239 . . . . . . . . 47%
Commodity Trend Service . . . . . . $214,858 . . . . . . . . 32%
Moore Research. . . . . . . . . . . $242,253 . . . . . . . . 51%

Clearly, the winners are not particularly accurate - just very profitable!

Now the question begs - What allows them to make money with what would appear on the surface as mediocre accuracy? The answer lies in one of the oldest adages on the street… let your profits run and cut your losses short. In terms of math, this simply means that their average profit per trade is substantially greater than their average loss.

The message should be clear and is one based on how real people did in real time and in real world trading - accuracy really doesn't matter all that much. On a side note, the next time someone tells you that all newsletters are a bunch of hot air you may want to show them the figures above.

Of course, the counterpart is that you must not take quick little profits. To succeed in this business you've got to hold on for large winning trades because as you can see by these real world examples - accuracy doesn't make you money.

This article may be reproduced only in its entirety.


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How to Buy Sterling Silver Jewelry with Mother of Pearl - MOP

Exquisite Sterling Silver Jewelry with Mother of Pearl

Any piece of fine material used to beautify one's self is termed as jewelry. Jewelry can be carved out of almost anything and is made for nearly every body part. Jewelry was originally adorned by people who had some high standing in the society and thus is usually associated with superior worth. Sterling Silver Jewelry is one of the more precious jewelry types present in the market today.

Sterling silver jewelry, as the name suggests, is made from Sterling silver. The term sterling silver refers to 0.925 grade of silver that was discovered in England in the 13th century. Silver when fully work-hardened, slowly softens and re-crystallizes at room temperature. Thus, in order to give silver any shape and more importantly to maintain that shape, other metals or alloys are added that are harder and stronger. In the case of jewelry, the best-known alloy is produced when copper is mixed with silver to give it the desired strength. The composition is such that it is 92.5 percent silver and the rest is copper. Hence it is also sometimes called 0.925 silver or Sterling silver.

Sterling silver, when combined with Mother of Pearl, gives a unique touch, which is inherently priceless and is in great demand across the world. Mother of Pearl is basically a lining of a shell that is usually of the same color, composition and similar in quality as that of the other pearls that are produced. The combination of Mother of Pearl with Sterling silver is often used because it gives jewelry a complicated yet royal look.

Mother of Pearl gets its name from the age-old symbolism that is attached with it. It is considered to represent fertility, rebirth and also a motherly touch. The brilliant luster and the unmatched iridescence of this marvel of nature when combined with Sterling silver are suited for all skin types. It not just suits but also enhances the beauty within. The magic of this combination is that Sterling silver cannot be used for making other items and the same goes for Mother of Pearl, but when they are combined together, they turn out to be exquisite. Nowadays, innovation and creativity rule the world and in this case as well, the Sterling silver jewelry with studded Mother of Pearl comes in various forms and themes. Some companies dealing with this type of jewelry offer special custom made deals, wherein you can give your design or ornamental patterns.

In recent years, Sterling silver jewelry with Mother of Pearl has gained a lot of recognition and is usually associated with wealth and richness. Hence it is mainly a women's product that enhances her beauty beyond limit. So if you are in a mood to gift your loved one, a jewelry set and you have your eyes set on Sterling silver jewelry with Mother of Pearl in it, don't think twice.

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General information on hearing aids

Hearing aids have been manufactured and designed for people who need assistance to make sounds accessible. They cannot correct hearing loss but can enhance and help you to improve your lifestyle. Not only could they improve on hearing sounds but may help with your speech.

Hearing aids are electronic and are operated with a battery sensing devices which can improve all levels hearing needs by adjusting the appropriate signal. Majority of hearing aids today have two appliances which work independently. The hearing aid could help with your speech as you should hear clearer and how the words are spoken.

When you go to choose a hearing aid the audiologist should look at your hearing ability, take into account home and work situations, medical conditions, any physical limitations and cosmetic preferences which should provide them with enough information and understanding to suggest the best hearing aid for you. Remember you must be comfortable with the hearing aid and be able to ask if you need a different one.

Amplification can be a reasonably effective treatment for people who are hard of hearing but it has been met with resistance. Amplification can assist with speech understanding even in a busy and noisy location.

Most people don’t understand loss of hearing whether it be sensor neural or conductive, they tend to speak slower or louder thinking this will help the person hear and understand. With a hearing aid no one will need to be treated any different which could save uncomfortable and embarrassing situations especially with strangers and help you to lead a normal life.


Hearing Aid Styles

How To Clean Hearing Aids

Alcohol and Family

Throughout the centuries there have been countless stories of the destructive nature of alcohol. Virtually every historical document dealing with the ethics or morality of a nation warns against the abuse of alcohol. Even today, some nations and religious groups go so far as banning the use of alcohol altogether.

It is widely known what happens to the family unit that suffers with the disease of alcoholism. Whether the alcoholic is mother or father, son or daughter, they are a raging hurricane that mercilessly plows through, destroying the lives of everyone in their path. Luckily today, there are places an alcoholic can go to get the help they need and get their lives back on track.

There is some speculation as to who may be prone to becoming an alcoholic. One theory is the predisposition of particular genes in DNA passed down from the parent. It is assumed if the "potential" alcoholic is lacking particular genes, they have a greater chance of becoming alcoholic. In this sense, alcoholism could be classified as a hereditary disease, passing down from generation to generation. But no one knows for sure what makes a person an alcoholic.

The disease of alcoholism and the family is still a very secretive thing in our society today. Most of us have had friends, if not ourselves, who have had/ do have an alcoholic parent or family member. This secret isn't usually shouted from the rooftops but kept under lock and key and hidden away. No one is ever usually too proud to have an alcoholic in their family.

The alcoholic can be an enigma; one moment calm, loving, peaceful and then the next moment (with or without a few drinks) full of rage, hateful and warring. Like a flipping coin, you may never know how it's going to end up. Some like to call it the Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hyde syndrome. This can cause fear and insecurity in a family that is already on edge and walking on eggshells.

When drinking, the alcoholic can be a loathsome creature who may be physically and/or emotionally abusive; the cause of social embarrassment, predatory, aggressive, the list goes on. They can also be the complete opposite, isolating themselves and being antisocial. They may be emotionally unavailable, extremely depressed and full of self-pity. Sadly these behaviors can continue on for months, years, and if they never seek help, for the rest of their lives.

The alcoholic is usually the center of attention for the family, needing attention and rarely contributing or giving back and always in trouble or in a crisis. Over time, this wears deeply on the family members and, in a sense, they become sick themselves. If the alcoholic is having a good day, the family is having a good day. If the alcoholic is having a bad day, the family is having a bad day. This is codependence which commonly develops among family members of an alcoholic.

Luckily there are support groups for family members who live, or have lived, with an alcoholic. There are numerous programs available like: Al Anon for family members of an alcoholic; Ala-teen for teenagers of alcoholics and ACoA for adult children of alcoholics. If you have lived with or do live with an alcoholic, there are others like you who now live happy and purposeful lives. You are not alone.

If you would like more information on alcohol and drug addiction, you can find it here: Alcohol Rehab.

Patrick McLemore is a recovering alcoholic and addict. Patrick has worked with the Manor House Recovery Center for the last two years providing guidance to numerous recovering alcoholics and addicts.

Living with an alcoholic is a very fragile existence, the relationship always undermined by a breach of trust or a potential breach of trust. Find out at http://www.livingwithanalcoholic.org on how to deal with it.